TRACKINSIGHT GLOBAL ETF SURVEY 2023
This article is part of the Trackinsight Global ETF Survey 2023.
ALSO IN THE SURVEY:
A downloadable PDF with all Results and Analysis, and 30 tables of Industry Data, updated weekly.
ETF Innovations Are Giving Investors New Paths in a Challenging Market

By Ben Taylor, MBA
9 min read

Global ETF Survey 2023
Innovation

Investors had nowhere to go in 2022.

Both equity and fixed income had dismal performance. The S&P 500 fell nearly 20%. Bonds had their worst year on record illustrated by the S&P Global Developed Aggregate Ex-Collateralized Bond Index suffering -16.7% in 2022. The breadth and depth of destruction in the market challenge even the most stalwart investors.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the market is now in a new setting in which investors need to take a more targeted approach as traditional strategies are quickly becoming outdated.

This might explain why many investors moved assets out of the market as long-term mutual fund net outflows reached almost $1 trillion for the year. Today, the outlook remains tepid. Short term interest rates are rising, and the forecasted global GDP growth is 2.2% for 2023, down from 3.3% in 2022.

Despite these numbers, the ETF industry appeared largely unfazed and proved resilient as seen by an uninterrupted growth trajectory. Investors remained committed to ETFs as net inflows globally were close to $800 billion mark. Meanwhile, issuers responded swiftly to the challenging conditions by further strengthening their product offerings. Over 1,100 new ETFs made their debut in 2022. These innovations put new and powerful tools in investors’ hands, equipping them with better ways to navigate markets and capitalize on emerging trends and technology developments.

Trends That Emerged in 2022

In recent years, a setting of low interest rates and surging globalization left investors with plenty of good options for building a portfolio that performs.

Today that has changed. The paths to wealth are fewer and narrower.

The new environment, characterized by higher rates, geopolitical upheaval, and resource scarcity, has left investors seeking new ways to drive performance and boost income. As a result, they need investment tools that are as sophisticated as their strategies. The expansion of ETFs in 2022 gave them those tools.

For example, an increase in derivative-based/leveraged ETF products in 2022 gave investors broader access to investment instruments that were previously available only to institutional investors. These ETFs were one of many solutions investors needed to build a more sophisticated strategy amid a declining market.

Additionally, some investors moved towards short volatility ETFs which offer exposure to the returns of the Short VIX Futures Index. Increasingly, investors sought out these and other tactical instruments that aim to generate more income, embrace market volatility, and leverage capital.

There were several other key trends that took shape in 2022 and continue to develop today.

Investors Are Pursuing Income with Covered Call ETFs

More investors are challenging the traditional buy-and-hold strategy as they search for ways to generate income. For many, covered call ETFs are the answer.

By selling calls, investors can benefit from the income generated by the premiums received. Investors are also seeing the value of gaining a limited amount of downside protection because premiums reduce the break-even point of their shares. 

Additionally, many investors have somewhat low expectations for equities due to Fed rate hikes, inflation, and geopolitical concerns. As a result, they are perhaps less fearful that a covered call strategy would lock them out of large, upward stock movements. Generally, this strategy is suited for markets characterized by bearish or sideways movement and for markets experiencing short-term surges in volatility which boosts premiums.

In short, covered call strategies have become popular as investors learn that the income from the premiums could help make up for the expected lack of share price appreciation in a purely buy-and-hold strategy.

Single-Stock and Single-Bond ETFs Offer Focused Leverage

For investors looking to amplify potential gains from individual securities, single-stock and single-bond ETFs were a welcome addition to last year’s investment landscape.

Known for their use of derivatives to offer a leveraged or inverse position in one company, single-stock ETFs first appeared in 2018 in European markets.  But with the arrival of these products in the US – as well as the release of the first-ever single-bond ETFs – 2022 was undoubtedly a landmark year.

With leveraged positions in companies like Tesla, Nvidia, PayPal, Nike, and Pfizer, Single-Stock ETFs offer investors a short-term strategy for capitalizing on major swings in the share prices of a few companies.  Similarly, Single-bond ETFs - providing exposure to just one bond type such as the US Treasury 10-year, US Treasury 2-year, and US Treasury 3-month bills - offer high-conviction investors a way to target specific assets together with greater transparency and liquidity to facilitate and democratize bonds trading.

ETFs Get Personal with Principle-Based Strategies

In 2022 opinion and principle-based strategies captured the market’s interest with political ideologies, lifestyles and even morals entering the investing world.

ETFs like KRUZ and NANC, named after prominent US Republican politician Ted Cruz and US Democratic politician Nancy Pelosi respectively, allow investors to mirror the portfolios of the politicians on Capitol Hill.

Continuing on a controversial note, VICE and BAD offer “anti-ESG” investors a way to access pariah industries including tobacco, gambling, alcohol, video games, and fast food. Meanwhile The God Bless America ETF (YALL), launched in late 2022, targets companies with a strong record of creating US jobs while excluding companies that openly endorse leftist political principles.

2022 also saw the rise of personality-based ETFs including the actively managed Meet Kevin Pricing Power ETF (PP) from famous YouTuber and financial advisor Kevin Paffrath. This ETF aims to focus on companies that have the power to increase prices and margins without a loss of demand. More principle-based ETFs are expected to hit the market soon.

What Will Happen in 2023?

In 2023, investors will likely need a more sophisticated approach as market fundamentals continue to suppress equity returns. This will require investors to consider the sectors and industries that will thrive amid a backdrop of green transitions, aging populations, and rising AI capabilities.

As more industries attempt to go green, investors will want to know the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) profile of their holdings. We can expect to see a continued focus on ESG-centric funds not only for their financial performance, but also because these funds increasingly align with personal values.

Investors will also begin to think more about how global demographic changes will drive performance in specific sectors. Specifically, they will consider how the healthcare industry is positioned to grow as the average age of the world increases.

Lastly, forward-thinking investors will find ways to benefit from the broad adoption of AI technology across industries like finance, manufacturing, healthcare, and cloud computing.

Here’s how we see these trends playing out:

Investors Will Turn to ESG ETFs to Get an Edge

ESG factors will continue to be a major focus in investing. Respondents of the 2023 Global ETF survey produced by Trackinsight shows that 30.1% plan to increase their allocation to ESG ETFs by more than 5% over the next 2-3 years.

However, ESG regulations are intensifying in Europe where the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) requires financial service providers to assess and disclose the ESG characteristics of their products. Some ETFs will be classified as greener than others.

Data will continue to show that ESG investing gives investors an edge. Consider research from Friede, Busch and Bassen covering 2000 empirical studies which concluded that the positive ESG impact on corporate financial performance is stable over time. Put simply, whether the focus is ethos or earnings, ESG is a fit.

Healthcare ETFs Could Surge as Global Demographic Decline

The average age of the global population is increasing. The median age globally was just over 20 years in 1970, today it’s about 30. By 2060 approximately one in four Americans will be 65 or older.

These numbers explain why research from Brookings shows that “healthcare has doubled as a share of total government expenditures in the last three decades.” Moreover, McKinsey forecasts healthcare industry EBITDA to grow 6% per year through 2025. The areas likely to benefit most from this trend include telehealth, medtech, and biotech.

Telehealth saw widespread adoption during the Covid-19 pandemic. Today, telehealth utilization is about 38% higher than it was before the pandemic. The medtech industry continues to benefit from both record M&A deals and increased R&D. Finally, biotech, supported by increased demand, has a forecasted growth rate of nearly 14% over the next several years.

Technology ETFs Are Ready to Rise as AI Adoption Grows

The rise of ChatGPT has introduced the world to the power of AI. As a result, more industries are discovering how AI-powered tech can boost productivity, create efficiencies, and yield more value from existing assets. Industries like finance, manufacturing, and healthcare all stand to gain from AI.

Individuals will have opportunities to use AI directly in their investment strategies with AI-powered ETFs that can analyze millions of data points across thousands of companies.

The rising demand for AI solutions will also fuel the growth of cloud computing. Why? Because cloud computing provides access to advanced hardware needed for the fast and efficient processing of large amounts of data common to AI systems. Cloud computing also offers the resources needed for machine learning, predictive analytics, and collaborative spaces where experts can build AI models.

Embracing a market that demands a more strategic approach

Writer William Gibson famously remarked that "the future is already here - it's just not evenly distributed." This rings true to forward-thinking investors who are using innovative, thematic ETFs to build a strategy that can work even in a slow-growth market.

Thematic ETFs allow investors to become more targeted in their allocations. This means being able to benefit from rising sectors even if the broader market falters. This approach will become a major part of any successful investment strategy in a future that is not evenly distributed.

Previously in this series
Julian Scatena
Julien Scatena
Head of Marketplace
Mid-Year Update: Unraveling the Evolving Landscape of Thematic Investing in 2023
Thematic ETFs have evolved at a similar pace in Europe and the Americas over the past few years, both in terms of asset growth and the number of available products offering exposure to one of many thematic strategies. At Trackinsight, we have developed a proprietary 3-tier classification system, covering megatrends, trends, and themes, to help bring greater transparency to the rapidly evolving thematic universe and enable investors to review and select ETFs with confidence. Each thematic ETP (the number currently stands at 1,215 as of the end of June 2023) is classified according to this taxonomy. As per the global ETF market, the Americas is leading the way for actively managed thematic strategies, with almost $26 billion of assets under management. In contrast, thematic assets ‘only’ represent $2 billion at present in Europe. Read the full article here.•••
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Julian Scatena
Julien Scatena
Head of Marketplace
Surging Inflows of $95 Billion in June: A Record-Breaking Month for Investments
The ETP industry, which counts 9,143 funds totaling $9.9 trillion of assets under management, benefited from a record month of net inflows with new assets of $96 billion invested globally through June. This sets a new high for 2023 and marks the third largest monthly inflows into ETPs since January 2022. Most of these investments were funneled into equity-related strategies (75% of total inflows), while commodities witnessed outflows in June. Asset growth evolved at a similar pace across global markets through the month, with the Americas representing 75% of total AUM, and EMEA 16%, as of the end of June. However, there was a marked difference between the two regions in terms of investor interest. In the Americas there was a clear divide between inflows into equity (+$58 Bn) and fixed income (+$19 Bn) strategies, while in Europe, fixed income strategies continue to be attractive from the perspective of a pivot point in the monetary policy conducted by central banks. See all weekly updated league tables for free on Trackinsight.com Actively Managed ETPs: An American History (for now) Actively managed Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) have become a significant force in the American investment landscape, and increasingly dominant in the global market. A staggering 92% of assets invested in actively managed ETPs are directed through American-based funds, showcasing the region’s stronghold in this sector. Of the 1,963 actively managed products available globally, an impressive 1,720 are managed by American firms.  Once again, June proved to be a strong month for actively managed ETPs in the Americas, with a notable 4.7% increase in asset growth. This growth can be attributed to substantial inflows of $10.3 billion and favorable market conditions helping propel investment performance and contributing to the overall rise in assets within the American market. Throughout 2023, assets flowing into these actively managed strategies surged by over 20% in the Americas, underscoring the growing popularity and confidence in the active management approach. Top 5 Inflows Active ETP in June 2023: JEPI, JEPQ, MINT, JAGG, DFAC See the Active ETFs dedicated league tables. Internet Stocks, Corporate Short-term Bonds and Brazilian Small Cap Stocks Ride the Wave in June Assets with the highest inflows in June, relative to their total assets under management, included internet stocks ($1 Bn), corporate short-term bonds ($673 M) and Brazilian small cap stocks ($330 M. Best Inflow per Segment Internet Stocks: First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund ETF (FDN) +$986 M Corporate Short-Term bonds: AMUNDI FLOATING RATE EURO CORPORATE ESG UCITS ETF (FRNE): +$681 M Brazilian Small Cap Stocks: iShares BM&FBOVESPA Small Cap ETF (SMAL11) +$288 M In Europe, Green is King The ESG investment gap between the Americas and EMEA continues to widen in 2023, with the European market now almost three times larger in terms of assets managed through ESG-oriented strategies. Once again, EMEA gathered 77% of inflows over the course of the month totaling $4 Bn out of total inflows of $5.2 Bn.  It is worth noting that the ESG-aligned product offering is also much more developed in EMEA, with 1,118 ESG ETPs recorded against 398 ETPs in the Americas. Interestingly however, and in line with observations noted above, issuers in the Americas have developed an exciting range of active ESG strategies, currently outpacing Europe in terms of breadth of offering. However, EMEA stays ahead regarding the total funds' size. Top 5 Inflows ESG ETPs in June 2023: XSEM, FRNE, AE5B, EDMU, EEDS  •••
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Julian Scatena
Julien Scatena
Head of Marketplace
Trackinsight ETP Flows Report for May 2023
The ETP market experienced significant growth in May, with the addition of 40 new products. The total number of funds available now stands at 9,084, providing investors with a wide array of investment options. While this trend may not be surprising, the split between new active- and passively-managed strategies certainly deserves to be recognized. The launch of 56 actively-managed products and the removal of 16 passively-managed strategies highlight the growing investor appetite for active ETPs.   Fixed Income and Active Equity ETPs led the way in inflows in May. These categories, representing less than 25% of total assets, garnered substantial investor interest, accounting for more than 75% of the total inflows for the month. According to the ETF Market Overview league table, ETPs represented $9,510 Bn of assets as of the end of May 2023. Active ETF and Fixed Income strategies are popular in the Americas Americas-listed ETPs benefited from +$33.9 Bn net inflows in May, contributing to year-to-date net inflows of +$183.6 Bn across the 4,322 ETPs available, including ETFs, ETCs & ETNs. The Americas represent 92% of total assets poured into Actively Managed ETPs ($486 Bn in the Americas - $529 Bn Total) and this gap continued to grow in May with +$11.9 Bn of inflows directed toward North and South American products vs $0.5 Bn into Europe domiciled vehicles. In parallel, Fixed Income ETPs were particularly sought-after last month with +$17.6 Bn of new assets invested. In comparison, Equity ETPs, which gather almost four times more assets ($5,698 Bn vs. $1,487 Bn), recorded “only” +$15.1 Bn of inflows over May 2023, equally split between passive and active strategies. Top 3 Americas ETP Issuer Rankings by Flows in May 2023 SPDR: +$12 Bn Vanguard: +$7.3 Bn J.P. Morgan Asset Management: +$2.9 Bn See the full ETF Issuer Rankings. Fixed Income and ESG exposures under the spotlight in Europe  Europe-listed ETPs benefited from +$8 Bn of net inflows in May, contributing to year-to-date net inflows of +$68.6 Bn across the 3,823 ETPs available in the region, representing $1,575 Bn of total assets. In the wake of the global trend, Fixed Income related products recorded impressive inflows from European investors in May with +$6.5 Bn of new assets invested.  Fixed Income ETPs – mainly in the form of passive strategies - recorded 82% of total inflows in May, representing 25% of total assets managed through ETPs in Europe. ESG investments in Europe continued to gain traction, attracting significant inflows of +$5.3 Bn in May. The region has been at the forefront of sustainable investing, with a strong emphasis on environmental and social factors, as well as corporate governance practices. In contrast to Europe, the Americas experienced a trend of investors withdrawing funds from ESG investments through the month, amounting to -$0.3 Bn. Top 3 Europe ETP Issuer Rankings by Flows in May 2023 iShares: +$5,6 Bn (+€5,3 Bn) BNP Parisbas Easy: +$1,4 Bn (+€1,3 Bn) Vanguard:  +$1,2 Bn (+€1,1 Bn) See the full ETF Issuer Rankings. 33 weekly updated league tables are freely available on the Global ETF survey microsite. Please note that the information presented in this article is based on available data up until June 12, 2023.•••
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Lionel Martellini, PhD
Professor of Finance at EDHEC Business School
Shahyar Safaee
Business Development Director at Scientific Portfolio
Financial and Extra-Financial Risk Analysis for ETF Portfolios
Ever since its birth nearly fifty years ago, when Jack Bogle created the first index mutual fund, the passive investment industry has enjoyed a spectacular growth, with passive investment expected to overtake active investment within the next few years.[1] The rapid development of passive investing has been to a large extend facilitated by the introduction of exchange traded funds (ETFs) as complements and substitutes to index funds. The growth of these investment vehicles has been particularly impressive over the last 20 years, with a number of ETFs worldwide growing from 276 in 2003[2] to 9,000+ globally in 2022 for a total AuM estimated at 9 trillion U.S. dollars, growing at a 11.8% CAGR since 2014 according to Trackinsight data. Chart 1: Expansion of the ETF landscape since 2014 in number of listed ETFs per year, split between passive and active strategies A stark contrast exists between the importance and significance of ETFs as the fastest growing segment of the investment management industry and the relative low level of sophistication of investment portfolio strategies involving ETFs. This disconnect underlines the critical need to frame ETF investment decisions within the modern paradigm of portfolio management. The latter is geared towards helping investors achieve an efficient spending of their limited dollar and risk budgets while respecting many constraints. It not only relates to financial risk exposures but also to a growing number of non-financial risk exposures.  Against this backdrop, this paper provides a brief discussion of how the analytical tools routinely used to measure portfolios’ exposure to financial and extra-financial risk factors can be utilized to the analysis of ETF portfolios’ risk exposures, subject to suitable adjustments. Given space constraints, we do not attempt to offer a thorough and exhaustive discussion of risk models for ETF portfolios but rather present a couple of illustrations emphasizing of how sophisticated risk analysis can help build more efficient ETF portfolios. The first illustration has a focus on financial risks, while the second illustration has a focus on extra-financial risk, and more specifically on climate-transition risks.  Measuring and Managing Financial Risk Exposures for individual ETFs – A Focus on Rewarded Risk Factors  Any active or passive portfolio can be regarded as a bundle of factor exposures. It is of critical importance for investors in ETFs to measure the exposure of their portfolios to such risk factors. There is a key distinction to be made between exposure to rewarded factors, which can be desirable since these factors are associated with a premium, and exposure to unrewarded factors, which should be minimized in the long-run.[3]   Transporting the analysis at the level of an ETF or ETF portfolio involves two main questions:  Whether the portfolio is materially exposed to rewarded factors Whether this exposure is well-diversified  With respect to the first aspect, a challenge specific to ETF portfolios is that the risk analysis should be performed not in absolute terms, but in relative terms with respect to the benchmark. Indeed, most of the risk exposure of any given ETF inevitably comes from the long-only market exposure, which typically does not vary significantly across ETFs. The more relevant dimension, where cross-sectional differences are expected to materialize, related to the residual exposure to rewarded factors once market exposure has been controlled for. With respect to the second aspect, namely the analysis of the quality of diversification, recent research has shown that simple measures such as effective number of constituents can be severely misleading (see for example Martellini and Milhau (2018)) in the sense that even a well-diversified portfolio of constituents can indeed hide a very concentrated portfolio of factor exposures. Again, to be relevant for ETF investors the analysis will have to be transported in a relative risk context. Such an analysis of the quantity and quality of rewarded relative factor exposures has precisely been proposed in a recent paper by Herzog, Jones, and Safaee (2023), where they analyze the level of risk diversification for a universe of 862 US equity ETFs from the Trackinsight database, based on weekly total returns data over the five-year period ranging from October 2017 to September 2022. Using Instrumented Principal Components Analysis (Kelly, Pruitt and Su (2019)) to build a risk model that reconciles time-series/beta-based approaches with cross-sectional/fundamental approaches (Vaucher (2023)), they decompose relative risk into individual factor-related risk contributions. They use this decomposition to obtain for each ETFs a measure of factor exposure concentration based on the effective number of relative risk contributions transformed into a suitable ratio called Concentration Risk Measure (CRM).[4] Chart 2: Example of risk contributions over a 3-year period for a Russell 1000 Value ETF using the methodology outlined by Vaucher (2023) in The Scientific Portfolio Risk Model They then use this concentration measure to analyze the impact of diversification on tracking error stability and find conclusive empirical evidence that US equity ETFs that have a diversified set of systematic active risk contributions have a more stable tracking error. These results have important practical implications for ETF investors since they suggest that investors seeking a stable tracking error for active risk budgeting purposes may benefit from selecting those ETFs that have a strong level of risk diversification. Measuring and Managing Extra-Financial Risk Exposures for ETF Portfolios – A Focus on Climate Transition Risks  While an ongoing debate exists with respect to whether increasing the exposure of a portfolio to non-financial risks as proxied by ESG scores should have a positive, negative or zero impact on the portfolio expected return (see for example Coqueret (2022)), the relevance and importance of properly measuring and managing such non-financial risks is now well-accepted, especially as they relate to climate-related risks. In what follows, we more specifically focus on measuring the impact of transition risks on ETFs. This is a challenging task for a variety of reasons:  Transition risks are difficult to measure due to their inherently multi-dimensional nature, given that the transition to a low-carbon economy generates risks at all levels including regulatory, technological, market and reputational. The relatively short time span over which these risks have had a distinctive impact on asset prices participate in the complexity to measure climate-transition risks. Transition risks are deeply entangled with sector and factor risk exposures, and it is empirically unclear how bottom-up fundamental approaches such as prospective scenario analysis and company scores typically used by ETF investors can cope with such intertwined exposures.  In order to address these difficulties, recent research has investigated the impact of transition risks on market prices by constructing dedicated factors. For example, Bouchet, Herzog and Vaucher (2023) propose a new climate-transition factor that captures both the sectoral and intra-sectoral dimension of the transition to a low-carbon economy. When using this factor to analyze the exposure to transition risks of a sample of 1,277 US equity funds between 2017 and 2021, they do not find that the addition of such a factor significantly improves the power of an asset pricing model, which is consistent with previous findings in the literature.  Interestingly however they present an approach that allows investors to disentangle the risk attributed to financial risk from those stemming from climate transition risks. Over the recent period (2017-2020), they find that the risks associated with the transition factor already represents a significant part of the active risk of some funds. They also find that exposure to certain traditional factors such as “Value” and “Investment” are associated with greater transition risk, which suggests that naïve attempts at reducing exposure to transition risks may therefore lead to undesirable biases with respect to other factors. Conclusion Value can be added by adapting to ETF portfolios some of the risk analysis methods that has been developed to measure equity portfolio exposure to both financial and extra-financial risk factors. In particular, we have reported evidence that such an analysis can allow investors to identify ETF exhibiting a higher-than-average level of stability in relative risk measured through tracking error. Turning to non-financial risks, we also report evidence that a robust measure of transition risks can be derived for ETF portfolios, which allows ETF investors to quantify the amount of risk coming from their exposure to transition sensitive instruments.   Once reliable methods have been made available to measure ex-post the exposure of ETF portfolios to financial and non-financial risks, one can then envision to use these methods to build more efficient ETF portfolios subject to financial and non-financial risk constraints. We see this step as a new frontier in ETF investing.   Notes & References [1] Bloomberg Research Intelligence, March 2021 : https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/passive-likely-overtakes-active-by-2026-earlier-if-bear-market. [2] Statista Research Department, Feb 2023:https://www.statista.com/statistics/278249/global-number-of-etfs. [3] The existence of active views on short-term factor performance can rationalize having a tactical exposure to unrewarded factors that deviates from zero, but the long-term strategic exposure should in principle be zero. [4] The distribution of risk contributions is computed across a group of 17 systematic sources of risk, including 7 fundamental equity factors (market, momentum, value, size, low volatility, investment and profitability) and 10 industries. While industry factors are not rewarded risk factors, their prevalence in explaining differences in portfolio returns justifies their introduction in the analysis. Alessi, L., E. Ossola, and R. Panzica, 2021 What greenium matters in the stock market? The role of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental disclosures, Journal of Financial Stability 54, 100869. Amenc, N, M. Esakia and F. Goltz, 2021, When Greenness is mistaken for alpha, white paper, Scientific Beta, https://www.scientificbeta.com/factor/#/documentation/latest-publications/when-greenness-is-mistaken-for-alpha. Bouchet, V., Herzog, B., and B. Vaucher, 2023, Look up! A market-measure of the long-term transition risks in equity portfolios. Scientific Portfolio Working Paper. Coqueret, G., 2022, Perspectives in Sustainable Equity Investing, CRC Press. Herzog, B., Jones, J., and S. Safaee, 2023, Remember to Diversify Your Active Risk: Evidence from US Equity ETFs, forthcoming, The Journal of Beta Investment Strategies. Kelly, B.T., S. Pruitt and Y. Su, 2019. Characteristics are covariances: A unified model of risk and return. Journal of Financial Economics, 134, 3, 501-524 Martellini, L., and V. Milhau, 2018, Proverbial Baskets are Uncorrelated Risk Factors! A Factor-Based Framework for Measuring and Managing Diversification in Multi-Asset Investment Solutions, Journal of Portfolio Management, 44, 2, 8-22. Vaucher, B., 2023, The Scientific Portfolio Risk Model,  Scientific Portfolio Working Paper.•••
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Anne-Valère Amo, PhD
Head of ETF Selection & Strategies
Alexandre Amo
Financial Writer
Cryptocurrency ETPs: The Safest Way to Add an Emotional Asset to Your Portfolio
“If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry.” — Satoshi Nakamoto, creator of Bitcoin Introduction Cryptocurrencies have been making the front page since 2018 and we are about to celebrate the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin protocol release this year [1]. The endless debate around their legitimacy has not prevented them from being attractive to certain investors – especially among the younger generations, who see them as a quick way to become wealthy. In a world where social networks have garnered the power to disseminate information in real time, today’s financial markets must integrate a growing emotional element. Indeed, all it takes is a news item or even a rumour to make a financial asset or an institution crash or burst. Cryptocurrencies are no exception to the rule and are ultimately victims of their decentralized operation where over- or misinformation too often governs their reputation and their price. This is further exacerbated by their 24/7 quotation and the lack of regulation. We can, then, legitimately raise the following questions: why are some investors attracted to such a risky and unpredictable asset? Can we talk about a standalone asset class which has a role to play in portfolio construction and alpha generation? How can investors get exposure to cryptocurrencies in the simplest and safest way? Based on robust and reliable data sources, the objective of this analysis is to tackle digital assets as a speculative investment and to put forward facts and stats to answer each of the above questions. An investment opportunity Cryptocurrencies offer investors access to the technological innovation of Blockchain which has revolutionized the way values are stored and exchanged on the internet without any centralized operational setup. Accessible anytime and anywhere, there is no discrimination as each actor owns the same power and rights towards cryptocurrencies. As an open book, no censorship is possible since no one can block the process. Most importantly, transparency is part of cryptocurrency DNA: intermediaries are no longer required, and transactions are made from person to person, thus reducing both transaction costs and opacity. At the core of decentralized finance, cryptocurrencies also allow billions of people to hold assets without otherwise having access to standard bank account models. As a result, even “if you don’t believe it or don’t get it”, being exposed to digital assets means being part of both a nascent technology innovation and a revolution of the financial ecosystem. In terms of adoption curve, cryptocurrencies are estimated to reach 1 billion users by 2025 (source: coinmarketcap.com). A standalone asset class and a portfolio diversifier Empirical evidence shows that cryptocurrencies have their own features and agenda. Our data sample is summarized in Annex 1 and spans the last 7 years (from December 2015 to February 2023), namely through the 2020 Financial Crisis and the 2022 bear market exacerbated by the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The following table summarizes major risk and return metrics computed across Fixed Income, Equities, and Cryptocurrencies to compare their respective risk/return profiles. In the case of the Maximum Drawdown, the date of the maximum loss has also been identified. Over the past seven years – taken with an annualized return of 78.17% against a slightly higher annualized volatility of 78.22% – Cryptocurrencies have offered the most attractive return per unit of risk, resulting in a return-over-risk ratio of around 1. This ratio is close to 0 for Fixed Income and only 0.52 for Equities over the same period. Equities have the highest percentage of positive returns over the sample period, followed by Cryptocurrencies and Fixed Income. The following graph illustrates the identification of the Maximum Drawdown (MDD) of Fixed Income and Equities (left scale) versus Cryptocurrencies (right scale). For each asset class, the curve labelled “peaks” connects all performance highs from which all successive losses are calculated to identify the maximum loss in percentage over the entire sample period. Based on historical data, the Maximum Drawdown borne by an investor who would have bought Cryptocurrencies at the highest and resold at the lowest over the last seven years is located at -87.56% against -25.22% for Fixed Income and -31.39% for Equities, respectively. The worst-case scenario for Cryptocurrencies, Equity, and Fixed income is respectively identified in 2018, the 2020 Financial Crisis, and in June 2022 (following the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict which initiated the long - and still current - bear market phase). Interestingly, the 2018 MDD was not replaced by the 2022 Crypto Winter during which the drop in value of digital assets was steep, widespread and ongoing, namely with Terra and Luna crashing, and the FTX and BlockFi exchanges filing for bankruptcy. The following table displays correlations across major asset classes and where conditional formatting helps identifying the exposures providing the highest diversifying power. Ex Cash, the lowest correlation levels are identified between Cryptocurrencies and all the other asset classes over the past seven years - with Bitcoin leading the pattern with the lowest figures. It comes as no surprise to see much higher cross-correlations among cryptocurrencies which confirm their common behaviour. Interestingly, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the most correlated digital assets. In order to challenge the diversifying power of digital assets over time, correlations between Cryptocurrencies and the other asset classes have also been assessed over 12-month rolling windows, as shown in the chart below. Correlation levels have varied between -0.47 and 0.68 over the entire sample period, the highest levels being identified in 2022. The war in Ukraine and the geopolitical consequences, the fear of a global economic recession, uncontrolled and uncontrollable inflation drove the markets into red figures uniformly across all asset classes. For comparison purposes, the relationship between Equities and Fixed Income are also shown below (in red): here, correlation levels have almost reached 0.8 over the same period. Another way to address the diversifying power of Cryptocurrencies is to incrementally add digital assets to the traditional 60/40 portfolio while measuring the impact on performance and risk indicators. The incremental allocation to Cryptocurrencies is taken first from the weight of Equities which have a closer risk profile and then from the weight of Fixed Income [2]. The left-hand graph below shows the cumulative performances of the 60/40 portfolio over the last seven years in which Cryptocurrencies are integrated in steps of 1% up to 20%. The introduction of digital assets significantly improves the portfolio annualized return, albeit at the cost of greater annualized volatility. The fair question to raise at this point is to know whether there is an optimal allocation to Cryptocurrencies in terms of return per unit of risk taken. This time, the gradual inclusion of Cryptocurrencies ranges from 0% (i.e., a pure 60/40 portfolio) to 100% (i.e., a cryptocurrency-only portfolio) in steps of 0.5% to 1%. Starting from a pure 60/40 portfolio characterized by a return-over-risk profile of 0.55, the return per unit of risk taken improves up to 1.61 which defines a model portfolio composed of 25.5% of Cryptocurrencies, 34.5% of Equities and 40% of Fixed Income. Beyond this critical point, adding more digital assets hurts the portfolio rate of return per unit of risk taken. In other words, the diversifying power of Cryptocurrencies within a 60/40 portfolio increases up to a 25.5% allocation. These empirical results corroborate similar sensitivity analyses done by VanEck and WisdomTree, both of which added digital assets up to 3% and 5%, respectively. We are perfectly aware that allocating one-fourth of the portfolio assets to Cryptocurrencies could seem a bit farfetched/extreme, but the objective here was to measure the full upside of digital assets in a cross-asset portfolio. How to pick the best implementation solution Digital assets belong to an ecosystem which evolves independently, is poorly regulated, and complex to access, begging the legitimate question as to how investors can reliably and effectively expose their assets. The summary table in Annex 3 compares proven implementation solutions providing exposure to the spot price of digital assets [3]. They are classified according to whether they allow direct or indirect (via a wrapper) ownership of cryptocurrencies. In the latter case, a distinction is made between vehicles physically backed by cryptocurrencies such as Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) and Closed-end Funds, and those that are uncollateralized such as Tracker Certificates. ETPs offering indirect physical exposure to cryptocurrencies are clearly the option of choice, as they provide more advantages than disadvantages. Their strength lies in their ability to be accessible from the traditional financial ecosystem by reducing operational risks and drawbacks of direct ownership. The diversity of cryptocurrency supply via ETPs is closely linked to the reputational risk and liquidity (accessibility) of the underlying digital assets. In other words, for seasoned investors, the unavailability of certain cryptocurrencies through ETPs is also a safeguard. On top of that, this limitation should be reduced over time with the maturation of the underlying market. Based on Trackinsight data, the two graphs below (read left to right) illustrate capital net flow growth in digital ETPs and monthly assets under management (AuM) versus net flows, both measured in USD over the last 12 months: Both illustrations show that there is no clear pattern between performance and investor’s appetite measured through net flows and AuM: net inflows (and net outflows, respectively) do not necessarily follow positive (and respectively, negative) performances. In addition, despite 2022 market correction which did not spare Cryptocurrencies, cumulative net flows have remained constant and resilient throughout the year.  For an institutional investor subject to more regulatory constraints, physical ETPs seem to offer the most robust and easy-to-set-up option, which is why institutional capital net flows across these products have considerably increased since Q2 2021 (source: WisdomTree, 2022). It may, however, seem contradictory to see the rise and success of financial products indirectly offering exposure to digital assets, while Cryptocurrencies are meant to evolve outside the traditional centralized financial system and to be accessible through a digital wallet. In other words, wrappers such as ETPs, closed-end investment funds, or tracker certificates bring Cryptocurrencies back on stock exchanges and traditional trading platforms, and therefore keep them away from the very foundations of blockchain technology. Thorough due diligence Like any financial products, Crypto ETPs deserve a thorough and specific due diligence analysis given that digital risks as well as standard concerns must be covered. For ETPs tracking the spot price of cryptocurrencies, it is important to highlight that their respective performances should only diverge in terms of Total Expense Ratio (TER). Digital assets are quoted around the clock across independent exchanges, making ETP performances dependent on the data source and fixing chosen. This in turn makes their comparability more challenging and incomplete if one doesn’t dive more deeply into their structure and counterparty risk. Apart from the obvious and thorough analysis of the issuer, size, and track record, Trackinsight considers the following criteria crucial when selecting any physically-backed digital ETP: Underlying benchmark The index provider should be regulated and an industry leader in providing cryptocurrency reference price calculations.  Coin entitlement The number of digital assets the ETPs are entitled to should be published and accessible on a daily basis. Custodian: name and number Custodians should be regulated industry leaders and independent entities from the issuer. The use of a multiple-custodian framework can help diversify counterparty risk. Storage risks and mitigation Cold storage through fully encrypted private keys and digital assets kept offline has become the standard across Cryptocurrency ETPs. Given that zero risk does not exist, investors should verify the presence and coverage of an insurance policy against hacking, physical loss, or damage of digital currencies. Hard fork risk A fork occurs when a cryptocurrency existing code is changed, resulting in both an old and new version; this can directly impact collateral viability. The custodian’s hard fork policy should be analysed to know the risk the collateral carries in the event of forking. Crypto lending Crypto lending is a source of revenue and an appealing way to counterbalance the expense ratio. It is also a highway to opacity and uncontrollable counterparty risk as lending activities are not regulated, and borrower identity and creditworthiness are not disclosed. In addition, the accurate composition of the collateral accepted from borrowers is not public information. Staking and implied risk Staking arrangements aim to use a portion of the collateral to engage with Proof-of-Stake (PoS) [4] activities. This source of revenue can be received at the cost of higher counterparty risk. Therefore, even if the ETP is rewarded, investors must make sure the portion of staked collateralized cryptocurrencies is also held in an unsegregated cold wallet, and therefore not exposed to the internet and additional custodian counterparty risk. Another drawback of staking lies in its bonding period. To unlock rewards, users must commit to locking their stake on-chain for a predetermined period. These bonding period lengths vary considerably – anything from a few days to much longer periods of time. As a result, the limited availability during the bonding period induces a liquidity risk for the ETP in the event of massive outflows, given that access to digital assets is not possible. It is important to also consider the devaluation risk during the bonding period, as the PoS process – by virtue of how it is built – disrupts direct market access. Moreover, if the agreement validation process is not done correctly, then the node [5] usually incurs a penalty (so-called, “slashing”), resulting in the loss of some or all of the staked assets. Liquidity Bid-ask spreads along with the number of authorized participants are indicators of liquidity depth. Replication quality Annualized tracking differences should only and solely reflect the expense ratio. If the maths is not correct, then additional costs should be unveiled. Cost efficiency TER should be the key indicator here as the only component to be cut off from the spot price. Annual fees can also be an indicator of the counterparty risk taken, as some Cryptocurrency ETPs are now available for 0% TER which reveals intensive lending and/or staking activities. Last but certainly not least, issuer transparency should be the most important criteria either upon request or as public information through the official website or in the prospectus. No answer is an answer. In other words, the roadmap always leads to the same conclusion: know your Crypto ETP before investing. Key takeaways Whether praised or criticized, cryptocurrencies have delivered double-digit returns on average over the past seven years at the cost of comparable annualized volatility. Their atypical return-over-risk profile along with their decorrelation to other asset classes tend to set them as a standalone asset class. Our empirical analysis has shown that cryptocurrencies clearly have a role to play in terms of diversification power and therefore portfolio construction. A comparative analysis of all implementation solutions available to investors to gain exposure to the spot price of cryptocurrencies shows that ETPs present the most secure and economical route. As an "all-in-one" solution bringing together more strengths than weaknesses, ETPs bring cryptocurrencies back into the traditional financial ecosystem given that they are traded on regulated stock exchanges. This return to the “old world” may seem contradictory since digital assets are technically accessible by anyone, from anywhere – i.e., through a decentralized and deregulated ecosystem. The growing appetite for ETPs over the last three years is a clear sign that, even in a virtual world without borders or rules, there is an inherent need to protect the end investors and their assets, and that regulations in this regard fall short. As a result, the advent of dedicated regulation such as the “Markets in Crypto-Assets” (MiCA) in Europe in 2023 could be a game changer by shaping a legal framework around digital assets that will increase investor confidence. Last but not least, even “if you don’t believe it or don’t get it”, the public commitment of major players across different industries such as Nike, Microsoft, FC Barcelona, BlackRock in 2022 is clearly a confidence vote in favour of Cryptocurrencies (Source: Ficas). References: [1]The white paper that conceptualized blockchain technology, and also named Bitcoin, was published by Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of Bitcoin, on 31 October 2008. [2] In order to simulate a realistic strategy, the portfolio is rebalanced quarterly to capture the market drift. [3] It is important to emphasize that the so-called “synthetic” exposures to cryptocurrencies obtained by using derivative contracts are not addressed throughout this analysis. In general, the main purpose of derivative contracts is not to capture the performance of the underlying asset, but rather to speculate on price variations at a later date. As they respond to investment strategies based on price anticipation, their performance can shift significantly from cryptocurrency spot prices. [4] “Proof-of-Stake is a cryptocurrency consensus mechanism [applied to specific tokens such as Ethereum, Cardano and Solana] for processing transactions and creating new blocks in a blockchain [based on the number of staked coins]. Proof-of-Stake (PoS) was created as an alternative to Proof-of-Work (PoW), the original consensus mechanism used to validate a blockchain and add new blocks.” (Source: investopedia.com). [5] A node refers here to a computer that connects to a cryptocurrency network. Annexes Annex 1 - Data sources The following table summarizes the indices used to represent and measure the performance of the 13 assets considered throughout our statistical analysis. Cash - Goldman Sachs Overnight Money Market Index (Link) Fixed Income - Bloomberg Multiverse Index (Link) Equities - MSCI AC World Index (Link) Real Estate - GPR 250 Oceania Index (Link) Hedge Funds - HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index (Link ) Private Equity - LPX50 Listed Private Equity Index (Link) Commodities - S&P GSCI Index (Link) Cryptocurrencies - MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 (Link) Bitcoin - CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (Link)  Ethereum - CME CF Ether-Dollar Reference Rate (Link) Cardano - CF Cardano-Dollar Settlement Price (Link) Polkadot - CF Polkadot-Dollar Settlement Price (Link) Solana - CF Solana-Dollar Settlement Price (Link) Cryptocurrencies as a whole is represented by the MarketVector™ Digital Assets 100 Index (MVDA) which is a market cap-weighted index tracking the performance of the 100 largest digital assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the market dominance with 45.56% as of 24 March 2023 (Source: www.coin360.com). Annex 2 - References Amo Alexandre, “Cryptomonnaies et la manière la plus sûre de s’exposer à un actif financier émotionnel”, Senior Year Thesis (Travail de Maturité), CECG Madame de Staël High School, 2022. Coinmarketcap, www.coinmarketcap.com, Can Crypto Reach 1 Billion Users By 2025?, February 2023, https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/63fc99befd311907dea2814a/. Cryptoast, Bitcoin et Autres Cryptomonnaies, Bien comprendre avant d’investir, Paris, Editions Larousse, 2022. Debru Pierre … (et al.), “A New Asset Class: Investing in the Digital Asset Ecosystem”, July 2022, https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-ch. Dumas Jean-Guillaume… (et al.), Les Blockchains en 50 questions – comprendre le fonctionnement et les enjeux de cette technologie, Paris, Dunod, 2022.  Ficas, www.ficas.com, Market Review & Top Crypto Trends 2023, 2023, https://ficas.com/research-and-insight/market-review-2022-outlook-2023/. Investopedia, www.investopedia.com, Crypto Lending, 2022,  https://www.investopedia.com/crypto-lending-5443191. VanEck, www.vaneck.com, https://www.vaneck.com/ch/en/bitcoin-etn/. Annex 3 - Implementation solutions­ The ETP acronym The “ETP” acronym holds here for Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), Exchange Traded Note (ETN), and Exchange Traded Cryptocurrencies (ETC). As a reminder, and in terms of legal structure, ETFs are investment funds, while ETNs and ETCs are debt securities (bonds).•••
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Our story starts in 2014 in a sunny town in the south of France, where a small group of financial professionals were advising institutions on their investment strategies.

They realized that professional investors had expensive systems, data, and technology that made it easy for them to invest in ETFs, but those tools didn't exist for all investors.

So, they decided it was time for everyone to have access to world-class ETF data and analytics, not just finance professionals.

Fast-forward 12 years and Trackinsight now operates from 6 countries, helping millions of investors find the ETF that’s right for them.

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