Why Tesla’s Dismal Q2 2025 Delivery Results Raised the Stock Price

Trend Analysis

In the U.S., it is an unassailable fact that, while Tesla holds a commanding lead over all other carmakers, its market share has been shrinking for almost five years now.

Source: Cox Automotive, Leverage Shares analysis

The most significant competitors chipping away at Tesla's market share are fellow American carmakers Ford and General Motors, with overseas carmakers Hyundai and Volkswagen Group also steadily surging ahead. A variety of other legacy carmakers have products now that have been steadily chipping away at the higher end of Tesla's catalogue.

After witnessing explosive growth for over three years – 2021 through 2023 – the EV market is cooling off. The lack of widespread and universal charging architecture (particularly in non-coastal regions), the high cost of EVs relative to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)-powered cars and a stubbornly persistent affordability crisis among Americans have all been contributory factors in this scenario. Electric Vehicles (EVs) are estimated to have constituted 8% of all new vehicles sold in 2024 while hybrids made up about twice that figure. As of Q1 2025, the market is trending towards a net 8% decline in sales for the full year. Early trends show hybrids essentially continuing to show a modest uptick relative to EVs in the U.S. market.

Note: Sales data from all carmakers haven't been made available as of yet to include in the trend analysis.

After largely keeping up with the growth of EV sales in 2021, Tesla progressively fell behind until it witnessed a net negative growth in sales in 2024 while the market continued to register positive growth. Q2 witnessed a net change in – to coin a phrase – the "overall heaviness" in Tesla's gloom.

Tesla Delivery Trends

By the end of 2024, Tesla's main revenue driver – the relatively cheaper Model 3/Y platform – had fallen from 97% production share in 2021 to a generally persistent 95% in 2025. In the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), this had risen back to 97%.

Source: Tesla, Cox Automotive, China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Leverage Shares analysis