Treasury Yields Inch Higher

The 10-year Treasury yield was up 5 basis points to 3.57%, hitting four-week highs on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 8 basis points to 4.18%, scaling a five-week peak.

The Federal Reserve is likely to raise its policy rate once more on May 3, which would bring the upper end of the target range to 5.25%. Fed funds futures contracts are pricing in a first-rate cut in Q4 2023 and see the year-end rate near 4.65%. Furthermore, the U.S. central bank shrank again its balance sheet by about $21.5 billion last week.

In Europe, the yield on the German 10-year Bund rose 4 basis points week-over-week, from 2.44% to 2.48%, while the yield on the French 10-year OAT closed 5 basis points higher from 3.00% to 3.05%.

Rising yields hurt investment grade corporate bonds. They edged down 0.03% in Europe (IBOXX € Liquid Corporates index) and fell 0.26% in the U.S. (IBOXX iShares $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index).

High-yield bond prices went down 0.10% in Europe (IBOXX € Liquid High Yield Index) and fell 0.36% in the U.S. (Markit iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield Capped Index).

Emerging debt in local currencies lost 0.51% after four straight weeks of gains while the dollar index stabilized around 101.43.