NVIDIA Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: NVIDIA Set to Close Earnings Season with a Bang

• NVIDIA is set to release its quarterly earnings on February 26 after the market closes, with expected earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.85 and revenue of $38.13 billion
• While demand for AI technology remains strong, supply chain constraints and rising competition could pose challenges to Nvidia’s market leadership.

As the world’s largest semiconductor company is gearing up to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, ending January 31, 2025, after the market closes on February 26, 2025, all attention is focused on Nvidia Corporation. As an absolute leader in the AI infrastructure, and high valuations leaving little room for error, Nvidia’s earnings results will set the tone for the entire AI sector.

Nvidia shares have experienced significant volatility recently, plunging sharply after the announcement of DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model. However, NVIDIA has since staged a strong rebound, recouping nearly all of its losses from the January peak.

This upcoming earnings report comes at a critical time for Nvidia, as investors await clarity on whether the company can continue its impressive growth momentum in the face of rising competition.  

NVIDIA Q4 2025 Earnings Preview

According to consensus estimates, NVIDIA is expected to report earnings per share of $0.85 for fiscal Q4 2025 and total revenue is projected to reach $38.1 billion, above company’s guidance of $37.5 billion. This is a continuation of the steady upward trend since early last year, and signals market confidence in the company’s ability to beat expectations. NVIDIA has a flawless record in recent quarters, consistently exceeding both EPS and revenue projections.

Investors’ attention would be on Nvidia’s forward guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Wall Street analysts anticipate more than 43% year-over-year increase in earnings per share, with projections rising to $3.98 per share, while revenue is projected to exceed $42 billion.

Data Centre Momentum

Nvidia’s growth trajectory remains fuelled primarily by strong expectations for the company’s Data Centre segment, which has seen its revenue forecast climb significantly, rising from $22.2 billion in January 2024 to the current estimate of $34.0 billion; however, in recent months the pace of these revisions has slowed. Data centre revenue is expected to be approximately $38.5 - $39 billion in Q1 FY2026.

Blackwell’s Uncertain Outlook

NVIDIA’s upcoming Blackwell platform, touted for its ability to significantly reduce energy consumption and operational costs remains a key point of contention among analysts. While some forecast a sharp revenue increase from $3-4 billion to $75.1 billion, driving total data centre revenue to $183.8 billion in FY 2026, estimates for this figure vary widely, ranging from $152.4 billion to $236.0 billion.

The debate centres on the timing of Blackwell’s ramp-up and its total addressable market (TAM). Although the pace of revenue revisions for the data centre segment has slowed since early 2024, NVIDIA’s forward guidance - particularly for Q1 and FY 2026 - will be critical. Analysts will also closely monitor whether new AI infrastructure projects, such as Stargate, could help sustain long-term demand.

Source: TradingView

Stock Market Volatility is Expected to Rise

Investors would be closely monitoring NVIDIA’s earnings, especially following the recent 22% selloff driven by the launch of DeepSeek. Despite this setback, NVIDIA’s long-term growth potential in AI remains robust, and Nvidia’s commentary around the newly emerged competition will be closely watched.

Nvidia’s earnings reports are consistently some of the most influential events in the tech sector, and this upcoming release is no exception. Investors should brace for significant price swings as the market reacts to the results, with volatility likely to be higher than the typical 5% - 10% range most companies experience around earnings.

As Nvidia is not just a semiconductor company but the backbone of the AI sector, the company share price performance would have a big impact on the broader market and especially tech stocks.

With high expectations already priced into its stock, Nvidia will need to deliver impressive results to sustain its rally. Any disappointment could trigger ripple effects, potentially shaking confidence in AI stocks and impacting the broader market. This report will either reinforce Nvidia’s dominance or reveal potential vulnerabilities.

While Nvidia has an impressive track record, exceeding Wall Street estimates in 16 of the last 18 quarters, expectations are already at elevated levels, therefore, even a strong earnings beat might not be sufficient to drive the stock much higher.

Key Takeaways for Investors

NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings announcement will be a crucial moment for both the company and the broader AI industry. As one of the primary beneficiaries of the AI boom, NVIDIA’s financial performance and forward-looking statements will offer valuable insights into the sector’s future growth trajectory.

The market will be focused on updates on Blackwell’s production and rollout timelines, the company’s guidance for Q1 and FY 2026, particularly regarding Data Centre demand, tariffs and trade risks, and insights into new AI infrastructure initiatives, such as Stargate.

Professional investors looking for magnifies exposure to Nvidia may consider Leverage Shares +3x Long NVDA or -3x Short NVDA ETPs.

About Leverage Shares

Leverage Shares is the largest European issuer of single stock ETPs by AUM & trading volume. It is the only provider of physically-backed leveraged ETPs on single stocks, ETFs and commodities.

The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are subject to change. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of Trackinsight or its members. Trackinsight does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided.

Footnotes:

¹ Pepperstone: https://pepperstone.com/en/analysis/navigating-markets/nvidia-q4-25-earnings-preview-would-the-real-ai-powerhouse-please-stand-up/

² Visible Alpha: https://visiblealpha.com/blog/nvidia-earnings-preview-fiscal-q4-2025/

³ Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-earnings-coming-heres-expect-100000392.html