ETF Crystal Ball 2025: 80 Predictions from the Industry’s Brightest Minds

From record-breaking flows to the rise of active, crypto, and outcome-oriented strategies, 2025 is shaping up to be a defining year for the ETF industry. We asked 16 experts from top asset managers, exchanges, and research firms to share their five boldest predictions—unchanged, uncensored, and straight from the source.

Travis Spence

Global Head of ETFs, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

1. Global ETF Flows Set New Record
Net flows reach a new global record of $1.85T, exceeding the 2024 record of $1.7T. Flows are already at a record pace, with volatility boosting ETF activity.

2. Active ETFs Capture Nearly One-Third of Flows

Active net flows hit $600bn, with the U.S. market accounting for over 40% of total active ETF inflows.

3. Active Fixed Income ETF Flows Double

Flows into active fixed income ETFs exceed $200bn as investor demand grows for flexible, yield-driven bond exposure.

4. UCITS Active ETF Launches Surge Past 50%

New active ETF launches in UCITS markets surpass 50% of all ETF launches in 2025, up from just 20% in 2024.

5. APAC Becomes Fastest-Growing ETF Market

Led by China, Taiwan, and India, the APAC ETF market outpaces the U.S. and UCITS, with several countries growing over 30% annually.

Keiji Maegawa

Senior Manager, New Listings Department / ETF Market Development Department at Tokyo Stock Exchange

1. Active ETF Growth in Japan Accelerates

Regulatory upgrades will boost active ETF listings, strengthening Japan’s position as a growing ETF hub.

2. Japan’s ETF Count Set to Exceed 500

A wave of new product launches will soon push Japan’s total ETF listings beyond the 500 mark.

3. NISA Reforms Drive Retail ETF Surge

Tax-free NISA account reforms are encouraging a dramatic increase in ETF adoption among Japanese retail investors.

4. CONNEQTOR Integration Sparks Asian Interest

Connecting TSE’s RFQ platform to Bloomberg and Tradeweb is fueling growing Asian demand for Japanese ETFs.

5. New TSE Platform Revolutionizes Liquidity

The next-gen TSE system enables creation/redemption in 10 seconds, massively improving ETF market liquidity.

Jean-François Mesnard-Sense

Head of Exchange Traded Products, HKEX

1. Asia’s ETF Growth Attracts Global Issuers

Rising demand and regional expansion will bring more global issuers into Asia’s ETF landscape.

2. ETF Connect Fuels Cross-Border Adoption

ETF Connect expansion boosts Chinese investor demand for global exposure via eligible Hong Kong-listed ETFs.

3. Hong Kong Leads on Innovation and Connectivity

Hong Kong continues to see growth in its ETF market and lead Asia for its product innovation and China connectivity that present investment opportunities to investors and issuers worldwide.

4. Income ETFs Stay in Focus Amid Uncertainty

Investors continue to favor income-generating ETFs as markets remain volatile and yield stays in demand.

5. Virtual Asset ETFs Gain Ground in Asia

Virtual Asset ETFs are gaining traction, combining the benefits of a regulated, liquid, and low-cost investment option with the opportunity of virtual assets.

Andrew Campion

General Manager, Investment Products & Strategy, ASX

1. Active ETF Listings Will Outpace Index ETFs in Australia

By FY26, Australia will see more new active ETF listings than index-tracking ETFs for the first time.

2. Index ETFs Will Still Dominate CHESS Flows

Despite the surge in active listings, index ETFs in Australia will continue to attract over 80% of CHESS (Clearing House Electronic Subregister System) inflows annually.

3. Fixed Income to Lead ETF Inflows in Australia

In 2025–2026, fixed income will be the fastest-growing ETF asset class by inflow share in the Australian market.

4. ETF Trading Volume in Australia to Reach $1B Daily

The Australian ETF market’s average daily traded value is expected to hit $1 billion by the end of 2025.

5. More Single-Asset ETFs to Launch in Australia

Australia will see a rise in single-asset ETFs over the next two years.

Felix Goltz

Director of Research, Scientific Beta (SGX Group)

1. ESG ETFs will face scrutiny over data subjectivity

As investors become increasingly wary of arbitrary ESG opinion ratings, ETF providers will turn to more objective and verifiable data to design ESG ETFs.

2. Every asset manager will have its active ETFs (but few will be successful)

Most managers will enter the active ETF space, but only a handful will successfully attract meaningful assets.

3. Equity ETFs with broader diversification will thrive

Investors will seek alternatives to concentrated indices, boosting demand for more diversified equity strategies.

4. ETF fee compression will continue but at a slower pace

While the race to zero fees for market index ETFs will continue, specialized products will keep their fee structure as investors prioritize exposure and strategy over cost.

5. Risk-managed ETF strategies will see heightened demand

Ongoing risk concerns will lead investors toward ETFs with built-in controls like exposure limits and volatility targeting.

Robin Mess

Co-Founder & CEO, Big xyt

1. ETF Liquidity Will Be Redefined Through Intraday Transparency

Traders will prioritize intraday liquidity metrics, demanding better tools to assess real-time execution quality, pressuring issuers and market makers to ensure intraday stability.

2. Active ETFs Will Drive a New Wave of Secondary Market Dynamics

Active ETFs introduce more trading variability, requiring advanced analytics to understand differences in spreads, turnover and market maker behavior.

3. Venue Fragmentation Will Increase - But Not All Venues Are Equal

ETF trading will spread across more venues, but quality will vary, pushing the buy-side to prioritize execution analytics and post-trade evaluation.

4. The Rise of ETF Options and Their Feedback Loop on Underlying Liquidity

Options trading in ETFs will affect liquidity and flows, making it crucial to correlate ETF derivatives data with ETF market behavior.

5. Data-Driven Best Execution Will Become Regulatory and Fiduciary Imperative

Regulatory pressure will make high-resolution, ETF-specific transaction cost analysis (TCA) essential for proving execution quality and fulfilling fiduciary duties.

Nate Geraci

President of The ETF Store, Host of ETF Prime, & Co-Founder of The ETF Institute

1. Crypto-Related ETFs Proliferate

Following spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, expect a flood of crypto ETFs—including XRP, Solana, and options-based strategies—amid pro-crypto momentum.

2. 351 Exchanges Go Mainstream

More issuers will adopt 351 exchanges to enable tax-deferred transfers of appreciated stocks into ETFs, following Cambria’s pioneering TAX fund.

3. A Leveraged Single Stock ETF Implodes

As the leveraged single-stock ETF market expands, at least one fund is likely to collapse due to extreme volatility and concentrated exposure.

4. Active Fixed Income ETF Category Remains Red Hot

Active fixed income ETFs will see continued inflows and launches as rate volatility drives demand for flexible, yield-oriented strategies.

5. Approval of ETF Share Class Structure Accelerates Industry Growth

SEC approval of ETF share classes will unlock faster ETF growth, especially for active managers seeking to scale without full fund conversions.

Nicholas Phillips

ETF Capital Markets Advisors LLC

1. Active ETF AUM Will More Than Double

Active ETFs will thrive as mutual fund conversions and investor demand accelerate year-over-year growth.

2. Sport XRP ETF Will Launch and Surpass Ethereum in AUM

With rising regulatory clarity and strong backing, XRP may join the ETF space and outpace Ethereum by year-end.

3. Private Credit ETFs Will Underperform Without Reform

Structural flaws like NAV opacity and liquidity mismatch will hinder institutional adoption despite growing interest.

4. Russia-Ukraine Resolution May Revive Frozen ETFs

Peace in Eastern Europe could lead to relisting or restructuring of ERUS, RSX, and other Russia-linked ETFs.

5. Gold and Silver ETFs Will Shine, But Miners Outperform

Precious metals will gain from safe-haven demand, but improving miner fundamentals could drive even greater returns.

Dom Dalmaso

EVP, Chief Investment Officer, Sound Capital Solutions LLC

1. Active Equity ETFs Will See Continued AUM Growth

Both existing and newly launched active equity ETFs will attract positive inflows from investors in 2025.

2. Dual Share Class Funds Will Pose Operational Challenges

ETFs sharing structures with mutual funds will create complexities for advisors and capital markets partners.

3. First-Time Issuers Will Rely on White-Label Platforms

New ETF entrants using 351 exchanges will continue to seek support from white-label providers for structure and launch.

4. Defined Outcome ETFs Will See Long-Term Adoption Rise

Investors will increase usage of buffered ETFs to stay exposed to equities while managing downside risk.

5. Leveraged Single-Stock ETFs Will Trade More, But Lose Assets

Volatility will boost daily volume in these ETFs, even as AUM declines due to investor caution and risk-off moves.

David Kreinces

Founder & CIO, ETF Portfolio Management

1. Gold and Gold Miners May Outperform Global Equities

Amid market uncertainty, demand for safe-haven assets could drive outperformance in both bullion and mining stocks.

2. Long-Term Treasuries Could Outperform Global Equities

Falling yields and flight to safety may boost long-duration bonds relative to riskier global equity markets.

3. Bitcoin May Outperform Traditional Global Equity Markets

Continued adoption and macro tailwinds could position Bitcoin as a top-performing asset in 2025.

4. Spot XRP ETF Will Launch and Challenge Ethereum in AUM

A Spot XRP ETF is likely to debut and, backed by strong utility and community, may rival Ethereum in ETF assets.

5. Active, Leveraged Active, and Leveraged Single-Stock ETFs Will Gain Popularity

Investors will embrace these high-conviction tools for tactical positioning amid elevated volatility and dispersion.

Athanasios Psarofagis

ETF Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

1. A Single-Stock ETF Will Blow Up

Speculative single-stock ETFs keep growing, but at least one could collapse under volatility, similar to the XIV episode.

2. The Texas Stock Exchange Might Outperform Expectations

Despite NYSE dominance, strategic hires and BlackRock’s Texas ETF could help the Texas Stock Exchange gain surprising traction.

3. Money Market ETFs Will Struggle to Gain Traction

Money market ETFs won’t gather much interest as investors favor traditional MMFs offering stable NAVs and similar exposure.

4. Issuers Will Launch More International Strategies

ETF issuers, overly focused on U.S. markets, will expand into international and thematic strategies as global opportunities arise.

5. White-Label Issuers Will Consolidate

Intense competition and low margins in white-labeling could force consolidation, as seen with Goldman Sachs exiting the space.

Michael O’Riordan

Founder, Blackwater and Moolah Invest

1. Vanguard Becomes the World’s Largest ETF Manager

Its relentless focus on simplicity and low fees will propel Vanguard to the top spot in global ETF assets.

2. Ten European Mutual Fund Firms Will Launch ETFs

FOMO and structural shifts will drive at least ten mutual fund managers in Europe to enter the ETF space.

3. India Becomes the Fastest-Growing ETF Market Globally

Favorable demographics and rising participation from global issuers will accelerate India’s ETF market growth.

4. European Retail ETF Ownership Will Reach 25%

Rising adoption will force asset managers to scale digital marketing and advisor distribution across the continent.

5. ETF Issuer Consolidation Will Accelerate in 2025

M&A will heat up, with at least one top-20 ETF issuer expected to be acquired or merged.

Beverly Chandler

Managing Editor, ETF Express

1. Defined Outcome ETFs Will Keep Expanding Globally

So-called “boomer candy” ETFs will grow worldwide, fueled by aging demographics and continued market volatility.

2. Active ETFs and Alternatives Will Gain Traction

Active ETFs will continue to grow, despite being dismissed as a ‘marketing innovation’ by some. Market volatility will encourage growth of non-correlated investments such as hedge fund-like innovations using CLOs or managed futures.

3. Asia’s ETF AUM Growth Will Accelerate

Following trends in the U.S. and Europe, Asia will experience a strong increase in ETF asset growth.

4. Private Market ETFs Will Flourish Again

Market volatility will reignite demand for real estate, infrastructure, and other private asset-backed ETFs.

5. Neo-Brokers and Robo-Advisors Will Reshape Distribution

Europe’s digital distribution shift will spread globally, making ETFs more accessible to retail investors.

Alexandra Levis

Founder & CEO, Arro Financial Communications

1. Global Investor Education Expands

Europe and APAC continue to lag the U.S. in ETF adoption due to smaller retail bases. To close the gap, firms will invest more in education—through research, videos, and campaigns—targeting intermediaries and retail investors.

2. Personal Executive Branding Becomes Essential

As AI content floods the space, authentic executive voices will matter more than ever. Podcasts, panels, and media appearances will help thought leaders stand out in 2025.

3. ETFs Will Remain the Gateway to Digital Assets

ETFs will continue leading access to digital assets. Expect more SEC approvals for altcoin and tokenized product ETFs as DeFi exposure becomes increasingly ETF-driven.

4. Digital Distribution Will Gain Momentum

ETF issuers will expand digital distribution in 2025 to better engage advisors and make data-informed outreach decisions.

5. ETF Marketing Teams Will Grow and Specialize

ETF marketers are becoming more sophisticated. While Arro mostly filled knowledge gaps, our firm now partners with experienced in-house teams to deliver high-bandwidth projects. Expect greater investment in SEO, content, and social.

Tony Dong

Lead Analyst, ETF Central; Founder, ETF Portfolio Blueprint

1. A Leveraged Single-Stock ETF Will Blow Up

Market volatility and overexposure will cause one leveraged single-stock ETF to collapse dramatically.

2. More CLO ETFs Will Launch, Especially Below Investment Grade

CLO products rated BBB and below will see increased issuance as demand for yield intensifies.

3. Renewed Focus on EAFE and Thematic ETFs

Investors will rotate toward EAFE regions and thematic strategies amid shifting global market leadership.

4. Currency-Hedged International Equity ETFs Will Multiply

More issuers will roll out currency-hedged versions to manage FX risk in global equity allocations.

5. A Daily Distribution Income ETF Will Be Filed

An issuer will file for a daily payout ETF, though approval may face regulatory and structural hurdles.

David Dierking

Editor, ETF Focus on TheStreet at TheStreet

1. Wave of ETF Closures Will Hit Niche Single-Stock Products

Expect a rise in closures, particularly among leveraged, inverse, and covered call single-stock ETFs.

2. ETF Inflows Will Top $1 Trillion Again in 2025

Even if U.S. equities remain weak, investors will pour over $1T into ETFs across strategies and regions.

3. Active ETFs Will Outperform the S&P 500 in Greater Numbers

With the Magnificent 7 cooling off, active strategies—especially in small caps—will show improved performance.

4. Home Bias Will Limit Flows Despite International Outperformance

Even as global stocks lead, U.S. investors will hesitate to rotate, keeping international ETF flows muted.

5. CLO ETFs Will See Another Surge in Net Inflows

Investor demand for high-yield, structured credit will fuel another strong year for CLO-focused ETFs.

Please note this article is for information purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice. It is essential that you seek advice from a registered financial professional prior to making any investment decision.