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Energy, Inflation, and Fed Policy
Fed members including Chairman Powell have said that data will determine future actions.
By Jane Street
0
- Fixed Income
- Jane Street
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In the past month, almost every Fed speaker has in one way or another indicated that 50 bp hikes are appropriate for each of the next two meetings, which will be held next week and next month respectively. The messaging on the September meeting and beyond has been far less unified. Fed members including Chairman Powell have said that data will determine future actions. They seem most focused on measures of inflation, but they may have to approach the numbers in a different way than they have in the past. For much of the past thirty years, the Fed has tried to “look through” (meaning ignore) increases in gasoline prices. Fed policymakers have instead preferred core measures of inflation, which exclude food and energy, because they thought these were less susceptible to short term fluctuations. Members believed that near-term volatility in energy prices was temporary and didn’t lead to entrenched inflation in other areas such as goods and services.
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