All Calm On The Interest Rates Front

As expected, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday. Jerome Powell quashed rumours that the US central bank would lower rates in March, adding that it would likely come later this year. He also said the FOMC members "are increasingly confident" that inflation is approaching their 2% target, but he expressed the need for further evidence before claiming success. He recognized the substantial impact of decisions to roll back high interest rates, saying, "We want to get that right."

After Powell’s speech, Treasury yields eased, erasing some of the losses suffered in the middle of the month. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury decreased by 14 basis points to 4.03% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury fell 17 bps over the week. The 2-year yield remained unchanged at 4.37%.

In Europe, Government bonds followed suit with the 10-year German bund yield down 6 basis points week-over-week to 2.24% from 2.30%.

Against this backdrop, investment grade corporate bonds made up some of their lost ground, up 0.19% in Europe (-0.59% year-to-date) and up 1.15% in the US (-0.31% year-to-date). High-yield bonds hovered around the flatline (-0.09% in Europe and +0.07% in the US bringing their YTD performance to +0.42% and -0.24% respectively). With a weekly rebound of 0.94%, emerging debt in local currency limited its loss since the start of the year to 1.03%.